The Magic Hat

Any earthly reason why the Pakistani populace should be deprived of their legitimate right to hear (and witness) what is financially in store for them for the coming year? The Opposition has every right to protest using Parliamentary practices procedures (and language thereof), the modus operandi was abhorrent. The National Assembly floor is “Hallowed Ground” for democracy, converting that into a fish market will consign democracy down the proverbial drain. The PML (N) has a sorry history of such “democratic” conduct. The Supreme Court was attacked by PML (N) supporters on Nov 27, 1998, their “Parliamentarians’’ resorted to “conduct unbecoming” on June 3, 2011. To run the affairs of the State taxes have to be levied and allocations for spending made. Democracy is best served with the Opposition dissecting the Budget proposals line by line, and with cogent reasons suggesting alternatives.

Ravaged by the worst floods in the country’s history and the ever-expanding backlash from the “war against terrorism”, our economic miseries were further aggravated by the meteoric rise in oil prices. The vulnerability and structural weaknesses of the economy were exposed when confronted with challenges. The economy scorecard, frail but resilient. The floods badly damaged the core areas of the agriculture sector, its domino negative effect disrupted the business cycle in the manufacturing and services sector. No surprise that we have missed all our economic targets, achieving a GDP growth rate of only 2.4% against the projected 4.5%, the lowest among the regional countries. In contrast, despite spending huge amounts in population welfare, we have the highest population growth in the region, registering only a decline of 1% in 30 years.

What the Finance Minister left unsaid was the required harmony with IMF diktats. Resiling from proposed tough budgetary measures, PPP’s coalition partner in the Federal Cabinet forced him to omit a good portion of his Budget Speech, PML (Q) and MQM dare not risk public anger already aroused by the selling of their political souls for a few ineffectual Federal Ministries.

One cannot underestimate the enormous damage to the social fabric in our “war against terrorism”. Suffering almost US $ 68 billion (Rs 5.1 trillion) in losses – equivalent to almost of the country’s total debt – this financial year (2010-2011) Pakistan has already lost US$ 17.83 billion (Rs 1.528 trillion), equaling this year’s tax target. The survey showing only 5.6% of the 54.92 million employable unemployed in 2009-10 cannot be really correct in actual terms, fully 29.1% of the so-called employed are unpaid domestic helpers, more than 23% being women.

The long-standing demand for taxing agriculture income was agreed to by the Provinces during the historic National Finance Commission (NFC) Accord brokered by than Finance Minister Shaukat Tareen. Not invited to the formal signing ceremony after having achieved the impossible, this was Shaukat’s parting gift to the nation, he resigned soon after. Legislators being big landowners, the Provinces had no intention of making good on their promise, why pay taxes when they can easily legislate dumping the burden on the 1% or so of the population that does pay taxes. The only solution really is to broaden the tax base and perfect the means of collection.

A meeting by the Finance Minister only 10 days before the Budget was called too late, six months earlier and the Provinces could have been committed to the agreed formula, considerably lessening the financial burden on the Centre. That Patwaris can collect such taxes is not only a farce, it is pure fantasy. The Punjab Provincial Civil Services (PCS) Officers led by Rai Mansoor had given pragmatic suggestions to their govt for increasing revenues and decreasing expenditures. The reward for such sound reasoning while standing up for their legitimate rights was to be jailed and suspended by the PML (N) Govt. That is selective democracy in full bloom the Sharifs’ way.

The public understandably wants to know whether the huge amount meant for the Defence Services is necessary and if so, is it being judiciously spent? Every penny of the taxpayers’ (only 2 million plus out of 177 million population) money must be accounted for. The mechanics of accountability must be worked out, Emotions must not get the better of the reason while the constant public refrain about making the Armed Forces accountable for their expenditures, should not become an excuse for publicly chastising them. This deliberate humiliation of the uniform is unacceptable, unfortunately while Mian Nawaz Sharif’s may have a genuine grouse against Musharraf, why is he (and his legal benefits) taking it out on the whole Army? The Defence Services must practice modern accounting methods, qualified personnel are in short supply. Waste is inherent in the present process. One agrees that complete revamping of the entire military financial system is required to get more bang for the buck! On their part the military must punish the corrupt in their midst and not cover up their crimes, eg those fingered in the NLC scam where an impartial enquiry found them losing billions in public money while lining their own pockets? Some defence expenditures must necessarily remain under wraps, motivated use of the media to make our Defence Services controversial must be avoided. With their Defence Forces 4 to 5 times our size, India is not willing to even resolve the Siachen problem. Indian appeasers will please note, their Defence Budget is more than our entire Federal Budget. Can we afford to let our gaurd down and besmirch the uniform?

One would rather be Finance Minister in Pakistan in a military govt rather than in a democratic set-up. In an authoritarian regime the man holding the purse strings has enormous powers, his military bosses are not really qualified to question him, financial spreadsheets being beyond their capacity. By weaving statistics at will, any good accountant, let alone an economist, can keep them spellbound. The present PPP Govt is hardly to blame for the economic sins of the Musharraf regime. Successfully practicing his own particular brand of “feel good” economics to make his boss Musharraf popular, Shaukat Aziz failed to invest in the power sector (and commensurate socio-economics infra-structure). The downside of his consumer-oriented policy finally caught up with the country with a vengeance. In the democratic dispensation, unless the Finance Minister concedes to their many demands for favours, Heaven hath no fury like a jilted Parliamentarian.

An extremely honest and competent technocrat, why in the world Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh would want to be the country’s Finance Minister now, at the worst of times, is beyond me; One of Musharraf’s major mistakes was not having either him or Shaukat Tareen as the Finance Minister. Shaukat Aziz, the master of PR, would have made a very good Foreign Minister, he could charm a snake out of its skin. Well knowing that he would be pummeled by friend and foe alike, Hafeez Shaikh courageously has chosen to drink, in the greater national interest, the poisoned chalice that every Finance Minister in Pakistan must partake of. Incidentally, did he pay the PML (N) to throw a political tantrum to spare him political blushes on his debut?

In the circumstances he deserves kudos, Hafeez Shaikh didn’t do too bad a job!

Courtesy: The News