Round Uprising in the Arab states was long overdue; however its epidemic like rapidity has taken the world by surprise. As long as the popular struggle remained an internal matter of respective country, it was viewed as a part of political process. However, foreign intervention in Libya has drawn a sharp negative reaction, the world over. An artificial political order imposed on the Middle East region after World War I, through intrigues of TE Lawrence and Sharif Hussein of Makkah has ever since been simmering and looking for an opportunity for its logical return to roots. Political fragmentation entailed by dissolution of the institute of caliphate left newly created states in a void and wilderness. Unnatural balkanization never went down well amongst the masses of Middle East. Formation of United Arab Republic by three Arab countries and an aborted plan regarding merger of Libya and Egypt are examples of such attempts to return toward a unified and strong Arab states in the Middle East.
Creation of Israel at the end of World War II by supplanting a legitimate state of Palestine resulted in a human tragedy that added to the volatility of the region. Four non conclusive Arab-Israel wars have further compounded the agony of the masses. Lava has since long been on the outlook for a chance to explode. The forces of change have asserted themselves over and over again. Initial wave of change occurred in the nineteen fifties and sixties when military revolts overthrew some of the monarchies. However, the advantage of change never tickled down to common man. New rulers soon became as authoritarian as their predecessors were. Collusion between the agents of external hegemony and perpetrators of internal tyranny sabotaged the purpose of these revolutions. Ensuing frustration amongst the masses became the driving force for subsequent waves of unrest.
Abdication of Arab cause by Egypt via Camp David accord was a major setback to the struggle of Palestinians; this accord also underwrote the national integrity and security of undeclared nuclear armed state of Israel. While ignoring the popular sentiment, most of the Arab rulers tacitly followed the line of Egypt in the context of Israel. Though rulers of the Middle East capitulated, the people never reconciled. Assassination of President Anwar Sadat was a violent expression of public sentiment. So far pro status quo elements have prevailed. So called revolutions of Tunisia and Egypt have been hijacked by pro-Western forces. Uprisings in Bahrain and Yemen are likely to go the same way; though Yemen may end up in a partition. Unrest in Syria may follow the Libyan route. All out effort is on by the neo-colonial powers to separate the people of Libya from its oil through an artificially imposed bifurcation. Western portion of Libya houses about 97 percent of people and Eastern region produces about 97 percent of oil.
Middle East in particular and the Muslim world in general are living under the profound anti-Islamic prejudices. Even there is no tolerance for symbols associated with Islam and Muslims. Outcry against benign trademarks like ‘Hijab’ and minarets indicate the undercurrents of intolerance for Islam as a way of life. On the political side Turkey’s inability to get the membership of European Union is a case in point. Obstacles created in the way of transfer of power to popularly elected governments of Algeria and Palestine Authority has exposed the myth of love for democracy by the western democracies. Inaction on deplorable violation of human rights of the people of Gaza shows an attitude of selectivity in this domain as well.
The United Nation is very prompt to take action when an uprising is in a Muslim country; an all out effort is made to settle the dispute quickly and in favour of non-Muslims, as it happened in East Timor, and lately in Sudan. Foot dragging is clearly visible when Muslim could be the beneficiary of any such settlement; disputes of Palatine and Kashmir are the examples.
There is a marked difference in the approaches taken by the western countries towards uprisings in all other countries of Middle East as compared to the hostile line of action followed in case of Libya. Where, hangover of PAN AM 103 seems to be the main driving force. Focus in all other countries was to either protect the regime or make a cosmetic transition by handpicking the successor regime which could ensure continuity. In Libya focus is on decimating the military capability, and to partition the country.
Lebanon went through a long spell of painful instability, and is far from sustainable calm. Deep seeded discord amongst the Shia and Sunni have plunged this unfortunate country into a precarious situation. A Muslim majority country is on its knees in front of manipulative Christian minority. Another cause of its troubles is its close proximity to Israel. Keeping in view the proxy wars, and sectarian biased alignment of its mainstream politicians, Lebanon is poised to remain instable for an indefinite period of time. This does no represent a tenable model for change.
Syria is on the brink; Saudi Arabia, Jordan could be next to feel the shocks, followed by other countries. It is only a matter of time and intensity. While living under the shadow of these insecure circumstances masses in the Arab World are looking for a paradigm shift in the domestic as well as international policies of their countries.
In the neighbourhood of Arab countries, Iranian revolution has survived for about four decades. This model has radiated its effects in adjoining areas. This revolution happened due to simultaneous readiness of the public and the alternative leadership. Intricate relationship between these two vital ingredients of revolution severs both as a source of national strength and a system of checks and balances. There is national consensus on the objectives to be achieved. Even detractors concede that expression of disagreement after the previous election was a voice for in-house political change and not an expression of anti-revolution sentiment.
Iran has played a role of a facilitator of stability in post elections’ Iraq; it is positively engaged with Afghan government and has enabled Lebanon in achieving a relatively better political steadiness. Iranian revolution presents a way forward sans submission to neo-colonial powers. Nevertheless, even after about four decades of success story, existential threats to Iranian revolution are of grave magnitude and resurgence of regressive forces cannot be ruled out. A multifaceted campaign is being followed by the neo-colonial supporters belonging to regressive elements. Economic and social strangulation through sanctions, threats of invasion on the pretext of nuclear issues and subversion through discontented elements make a potent complex of external intervention and internal intrigue.
A silent change has taken place in another non-Arab country—- Turkey—- over the past one decade or so. It has receded from its march towards secular ideals and European identity. Democratic process has taken firm roots, economy has been turned around and pride of a common Turk stands boosted. This model of change, through placid evolution, needs to be understood.
UNSC resolution 1973 about Libya was poorly drafted by opportunists, giving it notorious elasticity leading to fancy interpretations. It is likely to set a horrible precedent in the name of vague terminologies like democracy, human rights, protection of civilians etc. It will open the flood gates for international intervention; going by the wording of resolution, almost all Arab states and most of the developing countries perpetually qualify for foreign intervention under fuzzy pretexts. Realizing the implications of the resolution, Arab support for military intervention wavered rather quickly. Qatar and the UAE are the only Arab states taking part in enforcing no-fly zone, both contributing just a token number of aircraft.
Though the instrument of UN Peace keeping force is intact, a tool of intervention was allowed to take the lead role. America unable to carry along the baggage of another intervention against a Muslim country has passed on the buck to NATO.
Impotence of Arab League and Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) glaringly came to fore during the Libyan crisis. To remain relevant these institutions need to be strengthened to play their role. Time has to revitalize OIC and equip it with a rapid deployment Peace Keeping Force drawn from Muslim States.
Arab World and Middle East is poised to undergo the change but in multi-stages. Pro status quo forces are rather strong and have the capacity of bouncing back several times. Neo-colonial powers are at the back of the elements striving for continuity of state policies. Those striving for change may be in for a long haul. In America, Islam phobia has moved from the periphery to centre stage. Other anti-Islam states of the West are quick to move forward to make mischievous alliances to rampage the Muslim countries. These prejudices and phobias are poised to intensify the urge and tempo of pro-change forces. In distant timeframe, Arab world and Middle East seem poised to move towards emergence of larger and stronger states through intermediary stages of disintegration and dismemberments during short to medium timeframe. New states are likely to be more Islamic in format and character, less pro-Western and lesser friendly towards Israel.
