PROLOGUE
Climate change has become a global phenomenon. The United Nations (UN) has constituted Inter Governmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) and 155 countries have signed the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). Climate change is mainly manifested by global warming, an issue about which the UN is extremely conscious about and is actively engaged in combating the situation through multi-pronged strategies.
Present Trends of Global Climate Change
Climate change has engulfed the entire Planet Earth. Chronological happenings are given below:
- The year 1995 was the hottest year in the 20th Century. As compared to 1895, the year 1995 faced a rise of 0.4 Co. By the end of this Century the temperature of the Earth had increased by 1.5 Co.
- Polar ice started melting since less heat is reflected back into the space and the snow in the Arctic region is melting. Similarly the “Frozen Earth” is in the process of thawing on account of which the construction works are being undertaken at a rapid pace. Consequent to climate change different regions of the world undergo varying fluctuations in temperature and rainfall. Certain places receive the benefits of such natural changes while destruction is the fate of the others. More rainfall occurs in some parts of the globe while others are left with dry conditions. Cyclones, typhoons and tidal upheavals are also caused.
- Pakistan is confronting a similar situation like most countries. Meteorological data reveals that winters are rising and summers are getting cooler. Temperature is expected to increase by 0.9oC and 1.5oC by years 2020 and 2050 respectively. Pakistan is blessed with nine ecological zones which exhibit varying impacts. It has surface water potential of 140 million acre feet (MAF) and underground water reserve of 56 MAF. The EI Nino and La Nina have affected the hydrologic regime, surface & ground water resources, biodiversity and ecosystems in one from or the other.
Current Scenario
A few examples of climate change and its ensuing trends are cited under:
Hurricane FLORENCE has inundated CAROLINA state Catastrophic wildfires on west coast of USA
USA
- The highest ever temperature (54.4ºC) in Planet Earth has recently been recorded in Death Valley National Park. It is situated along California and Nevada. This temperature was measured on 7 September 2020 (Source: National Weather Services)
- Two dams on the River TITTABAWASSEE in Michigan were severely affected due to record rains in 500 years.
- According to United States Environment Protection Agency (US EPA) global carbon emission increased by 24% between 2005-18.
- Southern US coast is worst affected by hurricanes.
- California State needs 400 billion US dollars / year to achieve zero carbon emission by the year 2050. This amount is 2% of GDP.
India
In May 2020 India faced severe storm in the East Coast. Numerous deaths occurred in coastal villages and 3 million people were evacuated and placed in cyclone shelters.
Floods in Kerala
Australian Commission on Natural Disasters reported that during the hottest and dry year of 2019-20 the bushfires have caused following losses/ damages:
- 120 animal species facing extinction
- 470 plant species are disappearing
- 3 billion animals were killed or displaced
- Affected area is about 1,86,000sq km.
- Global Humanitarian Forum has stated that due to floods and droughts in 2009 developing countries suffered a loss of 300,000 human lives & economic drain of US dollars 125 billion.
- Carbon levels are higher than in last 800,000 years.
- Past five years were hotter.
- Islands in Caribbean & Pacific oceans contribute lesser than 1%C.
- Existential threat of climate change is worse than COVID-19.
- Adverse temp is more than 1ºC since 1880.
Pakistan
Broglie Glacier has shifted at an alarming rate. It has caused extremely dangerous flooding in District Chitral.
13 Million acres of land is affected in California, 1 million acres in Oregon and 60,000 acres in Washington. It is an apocalyptic event. Thousands of homes have been destroyed and millions of people displaced. Air pollution has reached toxic limits.
HEALTH RISKS
General
Climate change has caused multiple adverse impacts on health and well-being of the whole range of biodiversity. Humanity, animal kingdom and plants are all targets of environmental hazards generated by climate and weather vagaries. Inanimates are likewise the sufferers. Biological, ecological, physical, physiological, social, economic, cultural, meteorological, hydrological and political faces of Planet Earth are constantly threatened. The irreversible losses are fast appearing in every nook and corner of the world endangering the very existence of life. Our universe is depicting the gravest situation of climate sensitivity.
Health Hazards in Retrospect
Nature of Risks
Biodiversity faces direct, indirect and otherwise multiple and complex risks. These risks vary in their geographic spread and severity in view of innumerable causal climatic factors. Physical as well as mental health of humans and animals suffer vastly. It is strongly opined that such a situation will continue deteriorating tremendously unless and until immediate & effective action plans are not implemented to ameliorate it.
Health with Climate Change
Health hazards are mostly climate dependent.The impact of climate change is non-linear. The disease causing agents are active under different supportive climate conditions and their transmission is also favoured by certain local climatic and weather conditions.
- Optimal Conditions encompass suitable temperatures for survival and perpetuation of pathogens. Different organisms survive under different temperature levels. Microbes are thermophilic, mesophlilic (thermotrophs), extremophilic and psychroplic.
- The precipitation levels like rainfall, absolute humidity and relative humidity affect the lifecycles of microbes.
- Wind, air and oxygen content have bearing on the survival & reproduction of microbes. Those needing oxygen for energy purpose are known as aerobes. Thos requiring oxygen for metabolic activities are called obligate aerobes. The microbes that can grow without oxygen are termed as facultative anaerobes. Commonly the pathogenic bacteria are classified as aerobes, obligate aerobes and anaerobes.
- Congenial climate has a definite direct role in bringing good health to human beings. Indirectly it assists through peace of mind, heart and soul. It magnifies it via happiness, laughter, love, harmony with Nature & strong faith in The Creator Of The Universes And Climate.
Proliferation of Infections, Pandemics and Endemics
Exposure to favourable temperatures help the vectors to grow fast. Zika, malaria, yellow fever, dengue belong to the same family of diseases. Higher temperatures reduce the incubation period of viruses.
There is wide range of infectious agents which have emerged from time to time in various geographic regions of the world. Many stains of the same agent have appeared. Their performance is either direct or indirect.
Scientific connectivity exists between climatic parameters and disease burden. Global warming and heat surges cause serious health concerns while climate change brings ecological catastrophes which in turn lead to widespread psychological impacts during pre and post disaster periods. Number of climate refugees is growing rapidly. Future wars are likely to be fought over water resources. Various types of climate based models and spatial analytical methods have been developed to ascertain such a linkage. In the same manner future predictions may possibly be made through statistical techniques, process based models and landscape models.
Mode of Transmission
Pathogens, host and transmission environment affect the proliferation of infection. It is explained as under:
- The infectious agent may be transferred through water and air media, when in contact with human beings or animals (especially pet animals). Waterborne infections are caused by drinking contaminated water, operating in contaminated sports or recreational water and mixed potable & sewage (especially in urban areas). Examples are diarrhea, trachoma, gastroenteritis, malaria, dengue and yellow fever.
- Anthroponoses species are human specific. Instances are HIV/HIDS, tuberculosis, measles.
- Zoonoses species transmit diseases through animals. Rabies is an example. Also bubonic plague and lyme are such diseases.
- WHO Commission on Social Determinants of Health has reported the following facts:
- Marginalized and disadvantaged communities are more adversely affected by climate change.
- The developing countries are more sufferers of climate change. 90% of malaria and deaths of children below 5 years happened in those countries.
- The populations living in coastal localities, elderly people and the already sick persons are impacted more compared to others.
- Transmission through Minks
Minks were suspected to transmit COVID-19 to employees in April 2020 in Dutch farms. Since 5th June 600,000 to 800,000 minks have been killed in Netherlands. It is said to be an industry against moral and ethical grounds. Many European countries, USA and China are affected as these are carried by insect pests/vectors.
- Culex mosquitoes thrive on infected birds and suck blood carrying virus which in turn are transmitted to human beings. It harbours West Nile viruses/causing encephalitis, meningitis etc.
- West Nile Virus first appeared in 1937 in the west Nile district of Uganda. Later it travelled to other parts of Africa, parts of Asia and Mediterranean by 1990s. New York received this virus in 1999. United States Environment Protection Agency (US EPA) has declared this virus to be an indicator of climate change.
- Frequent rainfalls and high rates of precipitation and humidity provide favourable life cycles for insect pests/vectors. The windy weather hastens their travel from one place to the other. Also the damp areas and wetlands render nurseries for fast breeding of diseases carrier pests. Temperate regions are the vivid examples.
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
The climate change is impacting land water and air resources tremendously. Some of the negative effects of climate change are discussed in the following:
Proliferation of Diseases
Global warming is extremely conducive for proliferation of human diseases especially in the tropical regions. Overall health standard is likely to deteriorate with the large scale loss of life. The same is true in case of other biodiversity.
Deterioration of Agricultural Yield and Quality
Agriculture is the most affected by the climate change. The crop yields are reducing as favourable temperatures are not available at the time of sowing and during other stages of growth. Plant diseases are also increasing. Certain species of pests are flourishing. Thus overall produce from crop husbandry is decreasing in terms of both tonnage and quality.
Destruction of Deltaic Regions
The deltaic areas are the useful sources of feed, food and fodder. These are suffering because of increased salinity and pollution load.
Enhanced Desertification
Terrestrial degradation has been enhanced. Soil erosion is increasing manifold. Desertification is leading to decreased arable land. Ethiopia and Sudan suffered severe droughts in the 1980s. The deserts are likely to spread and the comity of nations will face an extremely serious issue of “Climatic Refugees”.
Disturbance to Energy Balance
Abnormal changes in the energy balance of the Earth’s atmosphere have started appearing due to climatic severity. Such imbalances have negative effects on water and nutrient cycles.
Variations in Rainfall
Fluctuations in frequency and intensity of rainfall in different parts of the world will result in certain regions receiving more rains and others lesser. This factor in turn will affect performance of the living creatures.
Rise in Sea Level
Sea level is rising and the coastal areas are being flooded. The water level in the oceans had risen by 20 centimeters (cm) in the last four decades. By the end of the 21st Century this rise is expected to be from 30 to 150 cm. Water in the other water bodies will also boil and the surrounding areas will be inundated. If ocean level rises by one metre, 10% area of Bangladesh will be submerged and most of the islands in the Pacific Ocean will be obliterated. Because of the sea water intrusion, supply of sweet water in the coastal belts gets reduced. This makes the life of the local population difficult. People residing along the Makran Coast of Pakistan are suffering from this untoward situation.
Loss of Biodiversity
On account of climatic disturbances, many species of flora and fauna are disappearing from surface of the Earth. Also migratory fowls face difficulty in finding favourable temporary abodes and the flying routes. Large number of species are facing extinction.
Accelerated Advances of Glaciers
When the glaciers advance, devastations in forms of flooding, land slides, etc. take place. The movement of the glaciers in the Himalayan, Hindukush and Karakoram ranges has increased on account of rising temperature.
Damage to Natural Habitats
The natural resources are being consumed non-judiciously. Natural habitats are being destroyed under the cover of so called development. This factor is one of the main causation of climatic change. The result is colossal damage to global and local climatology.
Impacts on Indigenous People
It has been reported frequently that indigenous communities living in various countries have been seriously suffering from adverse impacts of climate change because of over-exposure. Currently Brazil has indigenous people living in isolated tribes. Because of ongoing COVID-19, 25000 persons have shown positive result. These belong to 146 tribes mostly occupying forest land. 700 deaths have occurred.
Impacts on Wildlife
Wildlife is affected severely under extreme climate conditions. The droughts threaten the wildlife constantly closing the favourable habitats necessary for their survival and breeding. In fact the polar bears in the Arctic region and marine turtles are all facing different levels of threats. Pakistan’s marine turtles namely the Green Turtles and the Olive Turtles are confronted with hostile environment in addition to large scale sand mining
There is likelihood of widespread incidence of pandemics among the rare species on account of unfriendly climate and weather. This is especially applicable in case of the African Continent.
The silver spotted skipper butterfly in George Town is affected by pollution and climate change.
Captive elements in circuses and sanctuaries of USA are suffering from TUBERCULOSIS.Six seriously impacted wildlife species are African cheetah, giant panda, green turtles, Asian elephants, polar bears and Adeline penguins.
Climate Refugees
One billion people are expected to be displaced by 2030. Least resident countries will face socio-economic-political disturbances.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND PLANT DISEASES
Nexus
There is scientific evidence regarding the strong nexus among the pathogen, host plant species and the environmental conditions. Friendly environmental conditions assist in proliferation of disease.
Atmosphere
Atmospheric gas like Ozone (O3) plays key role. Leafy rust is inhibited by O3. The blight of Eucalyptus is controlled in the same way, O3 also reduces the process of photosynthesis. Ultraviolet B radiation has an important part in it.
Impacts of Droughts and Dry Spells
In arid and semi-arid areas of Africa and Asia droughts and dry spells appear as regular phenomena. African SAHARA is an example in this case. In Pakistan droughts fall in the affected areas after every 10 years interval and continue for a few years. In the wet areas around NAKHLISTAN birds and insect pests come in contact, thus the epizootic cycling is enhanced and the transmission of disease causing viruses is facilitated. The natural calamity of droughts and ensuing famines have caused colossal losses to biodiversity throughout the recorded history.
ROLE OF W.H.O.
Key sectors are given in Figure 1.
Key sectors (non-exhaustive) with relevance to health, environment and climate change
RECOMMENDATIONS
Protection of Wildlife
- In beaches vegetation may be undertaken to provide favourable temperatures for the marine turtles to breed in the sand
- Arrange freshwater supplies in African national parks and Thailand for survival for elephants and other such animals
- Kangaroos need protection from Australian bushfire areas
- Illegal logging of forests be stopped in order to provide favorable habitats to wildlife
- Impacts of greenhouse gases and pollution be minimized in natural habitats
Theme of the World Environment Day 2009 reminds the entire humanity to work in unity combating the ongoing climate change. It is recommended that all people should contribute their respective share towards this noble cause.
People from developed & developing countries and north & south countries should unite together without any reservations for making Planet Earth safe from vagaries of severe climate and weather conditions. This can be done under the umbrella of the United Nations.
The peoples of the world should avoid becoming slave of the climatic trends. They should work together to take pre-emptive action strategies rather than becoming prey of the situation.
Integration of adaptation in SD initiatives for building resilience.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
- Baba Mail
- Global Voices
- Google Search
- Hussain, M., Environmental Degradation = Realities and Remedies, Ferozsons (Pvt) Ltd, Lahore (Pakistan), 1998
- Hussain, M., Book Islam and Environment, Unpublished
- MNT Newsletter
- National Geographic
- NDMA Pakistan Briefings
- The Environ Monitor
- TV Channels (BBC, Al-Jazira, Pakistan TV etc.)
- Washington Daily Briefing
- WHO Briefings
- The Week Day
- People News
- Health-line
- cdc.gov/climate and health
- who.int/global
Contributed by:
Dr. Aizad Mumtaz
