The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is a momentous organisation which occupies territory from the Arctic to the Indian Ocean and from Kaliningrad to Shanghai. It may lead uni-polar world drive in the days to come. The SCO member states and observers have strategic geography spreading Eurasia from the South China Sea to the Baltic Sea and from the Persian Gulf to the Bay of Bengal.
Security preferences are being reframed, redrafted and revisited among the sixth members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) after the US latest withdrawal or policy of Afghanistan. The SCO would be one of the main stabilizing force in Central and South Asia after its expected strategic expansion in the near future. Its strategic expansion (Pakistan, India, Mongolia, Belarus, Ukraine even Turkey) would make it the largest security and socio-economic organization in the world. It represents 60 percent of Eurasia and a quarter of the world’s total population.
The Red Dragon (China) is roaring and geo-politically and geo-strategically fit for establishing global power alternative. The Bear (Russia) has awakened from hibernation and ready for securing lion share in the emerging regional and international power politics. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have already been included in the list of emerging economies due to its wise statesmanship, pragmatic foreign policies, consistent high GDP percentage and huge natural blessings. Its diversity may be further enhanced after the inclusion of Pakistan, India, Mongolia and Belarus in the SCO in the days to come. Multilateralism and interdependency within the framework of the SCO would bring huge inflows of FDIs and joint ventures.
During the last ten years the SCO has successfully brought the new paradigm shift in the regional security apparatus in the Central Asia region by effectively marginalizing the US military presence. It also reduced the strategic presence of the Western European in Central Asia by collective wisdom and strong political commitment. Now, some prominent Western think-tanks labeled it the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) of the East. In many research studies the SCO has been projected as potential threat to international power politics statuesque counterbalance to the US domination, and the last but not the least emerging security/military bloc against the Western imperialism. But Indeed the SCO is totally different from NATO. NATO is an outcome of the Cold War, while the SCO results from the need to maintain regional security in the new era of economic globalization, and it is not a military organization.
At 10 years of its existence the SCO has become the symbol of socio-economic integration, revival of global economic recession, last resort to universal financial church, watchdog to so called Great Game, indigenous solution to bring peace in turbulent Afghanistan, facilitator of energy security mechanism and the last but not the least custodian of regional peace, stability and prosperity. Divergences are there but convergences are making inroads in the SCO.
SCO Annual Summit (2011)
The latest annual summit (2011) was held in Astana, Kazakhstan. Its significance is paramount due to emerging socio-economic, geo-political and geo-strategic trends in the region and around the globe. Arab Spring, imminent withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan and Osma Bin Laden death’s episode have started rethinking, regrouping, and reconsideration among the regional as well as global power stakeholders. The US missiles shields installations, Greek and Ireland economic bailouts, and weakening economies of the EU have already raised the worries around the world and the SCO is not any exemption. Now, China holds the chairmanship of the SCO and it will be conducted under the slogan “Good neighborliness and friendship”. The salient features of the joint declaration are given below as:
1. Geo-Political and Geo-strategic Dimensions
(a) aIt pledged enhanced regional security, economic and cultural cooperation among the member states.
(b) A grand drug control strategy of the SCO member states (2011-2016) was approved. It would be conducive to enhancing the capabilities of member states in jointly dealing with drug threats in the region.
(c) The SCO member states reiterated they would continue to fight against all forms of terrorism, separatism and extremism as well as drug and weapon trafficking, other transnational crimes and illegal immigration.
(d) The SCO member states strongly urged to have a common standard of behavior on international information security.
(e) The SCO leaders showed their worries about deteriorating law and order situation in Afghanistan and demanded a neutral Afghanistan in the days to come. They also reaffirmed their socio-economic support to Afghanistan and believed military means alone could not solve Afghanistan’s problems. Furthermore the SCO supported its member states in working together with international institutions and other parties to take part in economic reconstruction programs in Afghanistan.
(f) It stressed the member states had played an active role in helping turmoil-hit Kyrgyzstan return to stability and provided a large amount of humanitarian and financial assistance.
2. Socio-Economic Sphere
(a) The summit pointed out the socio-economic achievements of the SCO since its inception. They praised its economic activity at the ministerial level.
(b) They proposed the industrialists committee and the inter-bank union adopts substantial common action, implement multilateral programs in order to promote the socioeconomic development of member states and increase financing cooperation efforts.
3. Cultural Interaction
(a) The SCO member states rated cultural and people-to-people cooperation instrumental to boosting good-neighborly cooperation.
(b) They also recommended closed cooperation in culture, environmental protection, science and technology, innovation, public health, tourism and sports for the betterment of the common people of the SCO.
4. Strengthening Cooperation with observers and dialogue partners
(a) The summit (2011) pledged to strengthen cooperation with observers and dialogue partners, whose potential would provide a huge driving force for further strengthening the SCO.
| TABLE 1 | |
| Country | Achievements |
| China | It successfully replaced the US from the bounties of oil and gas exploration in the CIS. It has flourished trade, investment and transportation links with most of the CIS. Its energy requirements have been secured. Its economic influence is now paying the dividends. It strengthened Chinese diplomatic power in the CIS as well as in international power stage. It is expected that inclusion of Pakistan in the SCO would further supplemented Chinese crucial role in the Central Asia region. It is actively developing cooperation with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in the energy sector. For Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, it has become an important exporter of consumer goods. |
| Russia | It gradually produced serious dints in the heavy military presence of the US in the CIS. It succeeded to revive its sinking economy. It strengthened its military ties with the regional countries along with strong commitments to protect against any external aggression. Ultimately Russian bargaining power has outclassed its competitors. A numbers of the US military bases have been closed from the Central Asia region. |
| Uzbekistan | It gained huge socio-economic benefits. It increased its exports volumes and joint ventures. It protected its holistic approach towards regional conflicts. It secured its neutrality stature. It maintained its peaceful efforts to bring stability in Afghanistan. It guaranteed its strategic assets. It saved it from three evils. |
| Kazakhstan | It enhanced its economic growth. It articulated its society and civility. It increased its bilateral trade with many SCO member states. It strengthened its banking and financial institutions. It improved its transportation and infrastructure. |
| Tajikistan | It boosted its economy by financial grants and economic assistances. It revolutionized its hydrocarbon sector. It rectified deficiencies in water reservoirs. It patronized its institutions. |
| Kyrgyzstan | The SCO extended its social, political and economic support for the betterment of Kyrgyz people. It increased its connectivity with the outer world. It reshaped its economy, civility, and society at large. It brought tremendous successes in the country. It manifolds its exports. |
Multidimensional Achievements of the SCO (2001-2011)
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was founded in 2001 purely practical purpose of settling border disputes between China and the former Soviet republics in Central Asia. Now, the SCO has evolved into a major regional and global political player since its founding 10 years ago.
Uzbekistan’s President Islam Karimov highly rated the achievements of the SCO in a short span of time. He further elaborated that it is an association of nations with equal rights. Moreover, SCO has manifested clearly that its activities are not directed against interests of other countries, nor is it a confrontation-oriented bloc he further added.
Reasons for Momentum
(a) Importance of regionalism played a substantial role in the development of the SCO. The projection of great game has made the SCO a flashpoint in international power game.
(b) The US military presence and military bases throughout the Central Asia region have forced the SCO to remain united and took collective measures to contain the US and Western vested interests in the region.
(c) It has become regional equalizer and is finely balanced by two great regional powers, China and Russia, which prevents any one member from dominating. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, two emerging economies are yet another pillar reinforcing the organization’s balance.
However, the severe ethnic violence in Kyrgyzstan’s south June 2010 and low-intensity armed conflict in Tajikistan’s Kamarob gorge in September 2010 have once again verified that the SCO is not prepared enough to meet the most critical regional challenges. Moreover, there is basic difference between China and Russia towards the operations of the SCO. Russia believes that the SCO should become a strategic political player focused on regional and given the region’s importance global security. Russia would like to use the SCO to strengthen its strategic presence in Central Asia. Right from the beginning, China focuses on trade and economic cooperation within the framework of the SCO. China sees it as an instrument of economic expansion. It seems that Sino-Russian mutual deterrence holds the SCO back while at the same time providing stability.
Military and law-enforcement cooperation
The SCO has been described by the West as an enigma, a security organization, a regional forum, an anti-terrorism coalition, and as a Russian and Chinese-led alliance created to counter US hegemony.
The SCO member states have signed a series of documents, including the Shanghai Convention on Combating Terrorism, Separatism and Extremism, the Agreement among the SCO Member States on Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure, the Agreement among the SCO Member States on Conducting Joint Military Exercises and the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation which has increased levels of cooperation and coordination among the SCO states.
Keeping in view the emerging trends in the regional security arenas and international threats perceptions, the SCO has developed a reliable infrastructure for security cooperation. Its military, law-enforcement cooperation and joint exercises have grown significantly during the last ten years. Within the framework of the SCO security cooperation has emerged as a key principle. Member states have pledged not to join alliances or otherwise take actions that would “allow their territories to be used to undermine the sovereignty, security or territorial integrity of the other member states.” They have also committed to immediate consultations during “emergencies that threaten regional peace, stability, and security.
In October 2002, several hundred Chinese and Kyrgyz soldiers conducted a bilateral counterterrorism exercise on Kyrgyz soil while observers from other SCO member states looked on. It was China’s first joint exercise with another country in decades. Again in 2003 China conducted its first multinational military exercise on Chinese territory. More than a thousand Chinese and Kyrgyz troops as well as Russian, Kazakh and Tajik observers rigorously participated. Bilateral Sino-Russian and multilateral SCO military exercises also occurred in 2005 and 2007. The largest SCO “anti-terrorist” exercise to date, “Peace Mission 2007,” occurred from August 8-17 of that year in Urumqi, the capital of China’s Xinjiang-Uighur Autonomous Area, and ended on August 17, with a live-fire exercise at the Russian military training range near Chelyabinsk, in Russia’s Volga-Urals Military District. Such military drills strengthened trust based ties among the SCO member states and gave a clear message to enemies who might be inclined to challenge existing regimes.
| Pitfalls A hot debate is going on why the SCO could not become a strong military bloc or security organization. Reasons are given below as: | |
| SCO | Details |
| Transnational threats from non-state actors | Right from the beginning, its main focus was remained on countering transnational threats from non-state actors, rather than a collective defense structure with capabilities for waging conventional wars like NATO. |
| Military Preparedness | It lacks a full-fledged military forces, an integrated command structure, or even a combined planning staff |
| CBMs | It focused on confidence-building measures, strengthening border controls, developing collective emergency response mechanisms for natural and human catastrophe, and facilitating law enforcement and intelligence cooperation against terrorism, narcotics trafficking, and other transnational challenges. |
SCO and Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)
Within the framework of the SCO security preferences vary from country to country. Russia always wishes to link the SCO with the Moscow-dominated CSTO, which includes all SCO countries except China to further strengthening of its geo-political and geo-strategic influence in the region. In case of China, and perhaps some Central Asian states have resisted transforming the SCO into a quasi-military alliance, either directly or through deep SCO-CSTO collaboration. China’s exclusion from the CSTO has caused Beijing to throw its weight behind the SCO as the most influential regional security institution. It seems that the Central Asian states also generally appear to favor the SCO, which is not dominated by a single country like the CSTO.
Uzbekistan is a key strategic country in CIS and its apprehensions regarding the implications of “collective security” where the border lines are to be drawn for the limits of national sovereignty proved to be major factor for the evolution of CSTO. All indications were that Tashkent disfavored any CSTO intervention in Kyrgyzstan last year.
Unique Counter-Terrorism Strategy
China, Russia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is becoming increasingly influential and its multi-tiered consultative mechanisms have become operational, especially the Tashkent-based regional anti-terrorism center, which has succeeded in foiling over 500 terrorist plots.
Now, the SCO has established a unique counterterrorism strategy not confined to terrorism alone. It covers “separatists” and “extremists” elements too. Member states are obliged by treaty to honor each other’s blacklists of individuals and organizations accused of terrorism, separatism or extremism without conducting any independent inquiry, violating international. A Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) based in Tashkent operates a comprehensive database accessible to all member state security departments to facilitate security and intelligence cooperation. The SCO and RATS have embedded themselves in a number of international-security and development initiatives.
The SCO needs a better cooperation mechanism and greater interoperability among members to fight the “three evil forces” of terrorism, separatism and extremism.
SCO and Afghanistan
The Astana summit (2011) called for a “neutral” Afghanistan is a major development. It now becomes the common position of Russia, China and the Central Asian states that they disfavor the establishment of any permanent US and/or NATO military presence in Afghanistan. It is possible that the SCO may assume responsibility for many issues in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of coalition forces in 2014.
In the recently announced policy of the US on Afghanistan, the Pentagon wanted withdrawal of 10,000 troops by end 2011, 33,000 by mid 2012 and the withdrawal of the remaining 70,000 troops through 2013 so that by end 2014 this process of transition will be completed. Stakes are high and conflicting in the region. Hot pursuits of power politics are again alive for gaining lion share after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The SCO would be winner in many ways. If the historic purpose of NATO was to “keep the Germans down, the Americans in and the Russians out”, then SCO is at least minimally united around the motto of “keeping the Americans out.
Pakistan, China, Russia and the other members of the SCO would also be winners. Having all said, there are perceptions that after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan the spillover effects may reach to the SCO soil and produce destabilizing trends. Nevertheless, in its 10the annual summit the SCO shows great commitment to play a formative role in Afghanistan in the post-2014 scenario.
The US establishment is now rigorously engaged with the Taliban for any political outcome of ongoing saga in Afghanistan. The SCO is also ready to play an important to bring peace, harmony and stability in Afghanistan. China, Uzbekistan and many other member states have already proposed indigenous/regional solutions to settle fuss of Afghanistan. The SCO member states are seriously considering granting Afghanistan an observer status which would enhance socio-economic integration and geo-political and geo-strategic participation for the collective prosperity and peace in the region.
Meanwhile, the SCO plans to apply the five-year Counter-narcotics Strategy that aims at reducing drug production in Afghanistan. The SCO has wanted deeper involvement in Afghanistan’s security and economy for a number of years. NATO’s gradual withdrawal from Afghanistan starting in 2014 will create opportunity for the SCO in Afghanistan. China’s investment in Afghanistan has been on the rise. China only shares a 46 miles border, but its interest in Afghanistan traces primarily to the exploitation of energy and mineral resources valued at $1 trillion.
| SCO | Expected Benefits |
| Politically | There would be more cohesiveness in the SCO policy decision making, political reforms and above all bilateral and multilateral cooperation, coordination and commitment towards the betterment of the common people. It would increase SCO bargaining capacity in the regional and international affairs. |
| Geo-Strategically | After the complete withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan, the SCO would be better placed geo-strategically. It would open new avenues of closer collaboration in the fields of collective security shield, military cooperation, anti-terrorism mechanism and above all socio-economic joint ventures. It would also cut the US overall military presence/bases in the region. |
| Socio-Economically | SCO is the icon of emerging economies club. It is supposed to be last resort of ongoing global economic meltdown and financial crunch. After the US withdrawal from the region it would enhance pace of joint ventures, imports-exports volumes and transfer of technology. |
Afghanistan: Regional Solutions
The late Richard Holbrooke felt that Obama’s over reliance on the military in Afghanistan had about it the “whiff of Vietnam.” Some regional solutions are given below as:
6+3 regional initiative
Uzbekistan always supported the regional solution to bring peace in Afghanistan. On April, 3, 2008 at the summit of NATO in Bucharest, its President floated “6+3” regional initiative on Afghanistan. It aimed to bring closer the world community as well as regional main stakeholders to bring peace in Afghanistan. So, the inclusion of the NATO was supported and endorsed by Uzbekistan.
The proposed 6+3 supports all the neighboring countries under the umbrella patronage of UN to guarantee the non-interference to intra-afghan talks, to refrain from providing political, military and financial aid to any warring factions, and to advocate talks within Afghans for ensuring peace, stability and progress in their country. Moreover, that proposed imitative spoke highly to respect and support the traditional religious, national and cultural values and customs of the Afghan people, respect the interests of ethnic minorities and give appropriate financial assistance.
Uzbekistan stressed the need to have closer regional cooperation among the immediate neighboring countries to Afghanistan to conduct for the revival of political engagements and harmony to the resolution of Afghanistan imbroglio. The superpowers will remain neutral, impartial, ban on arm’s imports, de-militarization and denial of the use of force, assistance to the socio-economic projects and support for the population of Afghanistan.
Contact Group 6+2
Initially the framework of contact group 6+2 with support of the United Nations achieved some success. It included Pakistan, China, Iran, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, the United States of America and Russia, was to elaborate common principles and approaches on achieving peace in Afghanistan. But due to many geo-political and geo-strategic conflicting realities, the peace has not been achieved in Afghanistan. Pakistan played substantial role in contact group 6+2. Nevertheless, now the US itself has restarted political dialogue with Taliban and meetings have been conducted in Germany and Qatar recently but still Pakistan holds the key to bring peace in Afghanistan.
Energy Security Pursuits
Easy and smooth supplies of energy resources guarantee constant uplift of socio-economic growth in the region. It promotes joint ventures and attracts high inflows of FDIs. It protects the regional prosperity and global financial stability in a larger context. The SCO region possesses huge reservoirs of oil & gas due to which the main stakeholders have different national priorities and preferences towards its optimal utilization. A brief set of mind is given below (Sino-Russia).
In order to coordinate energy strategies and strengthen energy security, last year the SCO launched a club that unites energy-producing and energy-consuming states, transit countries, and private companies. Moreover, further consultation is badly needed to resolve the energy related issues such as energy. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan concentrate on strengthening energy exploration, exploitation and exports, and Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are keen on hydropower and electricity grid construction.
| China | Russia |
| It desires direct control over regional energy assets preferably by purchasing them outright and seeks to maximize production in order to drive down world energy prices. It persists in pursuing bilateral deals that would redirect Central Asian oil and gas eastward. | It wants to maintain its control over regional energy (oil & gas) strategic assets as well as the region’s energy transportation infrastructure. It advocates a unified multilateral SCO energy bloc, which Moscow could dominate through its powerful state-run energy companies. The existing pipeline system linking Russia, Kazakhstan, Central Asia and China, could serve as a basis for establishing a uniform SCO market. |
SCO Great Central Asia Strategy
It seems that SCO has created its own “Great Central Asia” strategy aiming at fostering links between Central and South Asian regions. Its strategic expansion towards South Asia region i.e. Pakistan, India as full members and Sri Lanka as a dialogue partner would bring two sides closer and prospects of energy cooperation and security collaboration would be immense. The reason for this is that Southwest Asia and Central Asia are geographically adjacent, with common security concerns and complementary economic needs.
Any eventual SCO expansion into the Eurasian landmass to bring Belarus and Ukraine into its fold as partners can only be based on commonality of interests between Russia and China in the days to come.
In the past decade, the SCO has made great progress in economic cooperation. China’s trade with other SCO member countries reached $86.8 billion last year, an increase of more than 7.2 times from 2001, and despite the global financial crisis it was $83.96 billion in 2009. All SCO member states value the importance of mutual economic cooperation but face some concrete problems in strengthening it further.
| Strategic Expansion | |
| Country | Prospects |
| Mongolia | Russia and China favor its inclusion as a full member in the SCO. The strategic geography and huge territories makes it a ideal candidate for the SCO slot. |
| Belarus | Its inclusion can only be based on commonality of interests between Russia and China in the days to come. |
| Ukraine | Its full membership chances can only be guaranteed on the vested interests of the Sino-Russia. |
| Turkey | China is very positive for Turkey to become a SCO dialogue partner. Turkey is a friendly country of China and in terms of economic, political, security and people-to-people cultural exchanges. |
| Pakistan | It formally applied for the membership in the 2006 and now chances are bright for its inclusion in the SCO in the days to come. Pakistan’s territory connects China and Central Asia with the Gulf and South Asia which increases its chances for the SCO membership. China and Russia are both favour Pakistan as new member state in the SCO. |
| India | It applied in 2005 for the full-fledged membership. Prospects are bright for India to become the full member in the SCO. |
| Sri Lanka | It has dialogue partner status and its full membership drive is far away. |
| Afghanistan | It has observer status but after the withdrawal of the US and NATO troops of it, things may be turned into its favor(full membership) |
| Iran | For the time being it stands disqualified under a SCO provision that aspiring candidates must not be under United Nations sanctions or involved in an armed conflict. So, it is not a credible candidate. |
| Turkmenistan | It participated in the SCO as an honored guest. It recently signed gas pipeline deals with Russia and China. So far, however, Turkmenistan has not signaled that it has plans to join the SCO in any capacity. Both Moscow and Beijing have been urging Turkmenistan to forsake its previous neutrality and join the organization. |
Suggestions/Recommendations
1. Socio-Economic
(a) Establishing an anti-crisis SCO economic fund with a common program of action of the six members. Moreover, a development fund may also be started to initiate socio-economic projects in the SCO member states.
(b) Founding a SCO Bank that would unite state and private commercial bank. There should be uniformity in the payments and clearance system within the framework of the SCO.
(c) Common market and custom union may bring dividends in the days to come for all the six members of the SCO.
(d) Switching to settlements in national currencies under individual interstate SCO projects. Rethinking may also be given to have a common currency mechanism at least with the framework of the SCO.
(e) Involving the SCO Business Council and the SCO Inter-bank Association on a larger scale in the implementation of projects provided for by the plan
(f) Increasing the coordination of efforts among the SCO members on a bilateral basis to work out anti-crisis measures.
(g) Bilateral and multilateral banking and insurance cooperation and collaboration in the SCO.
(h) There should be a SCO transportation policy for the benefits of all the member states.
(i) All the member states should support the gradual economic liberalization process and privatization drive.
(j) Interstate conflicts regarding water, oil and gas exploration must be settled amicably.
| Issues | Reasons |
| Economic Cooperation | There are great differences on economic structure and legal terms and even greater differences in economic size among the SCO member states, all of which are undergoing economic and social transformation. Basic differences between China and Russia: China is more interested in promoting economic cooperation. But for Russia, security is the main priority and it wishes the organization to take a geopolitical rival’s role against NATO and the United States |
| Financial Constraints | There is a dire need of financial resources/funds of worth$10 billion needed to complete mega projects of railways, infrastructure, construction etc. Financial cooperation has deepened as all the member states gear up to establish a special financial account for the organization. The feasibility of an SCO development bank is under consideration, too. And efforts are being made to broaden existing cooperation mechanisms like joint ventures on wind and solar energy, and industrialization of scientific and technological achievements, and starting new cooperation frameworks for border trade in agricultural products and food safety. |
| Market Issues | Trade and investment liberalization, while others prefer economic and technical collaboration to increase competitiveness but hesitate to open their markets in order to protect their industries. |
| Trade and Investment | Tariffs, a license-granting mechanism, foreign exchange control and other laws and regulations are supposed to be main hurdles in the promotion of trade and investments in the SCO. |
2. Geo-Strategic
(a) There should be cohesion in the vested interests of the China and Russia at least with the framework of the SCO.
(b) Collective steps need to be initiated for achieving perfect security against the three evils and to contain the US and West military presence in the region. In this regard, common defence policy within the sphere of the SCO ought to be achieved along with common army. Annual military drills should be conducted permanently and all the six member states must rigorously participate. Anti-terrorism mechanism must be strengthened with intelligence information sharing.
(c) In case of emerging trends and strategic vacuum in Afghanistan, the SCO must make a collective map to bring and sustain peace and harmony in Afghanistan otherwise, spillover repercussions would be paramount.
3. Geo-Political
(a) The SCO secretariat must play a more active role in the fields of politics, economic, cultural and security. All the member countries should resolve their bilateral or trilateral disputes to make SCO a more effective and strong.
(b) Justice and mutual respect should be regarded as the best means for communications and constructive and durable cooperation in the SCO.
(c) Nuclear non-proliferation treaty must be implemented in true spirits.
(d) Strategic expansion must be allowed as soon as possible.
(e) Pooling of natural reveries between the SCO countries.
