A fictional depiction of true facts, “Exodus” by author Leon Uris is a moving account of the struggle of Jewish refugees escaping persecution and discrimination in Europe to get to Israel (Middle East) after World War 2. Sixty years later history is repeating itself but in the reverse direction. Migrants from the Middle East and Africa are flooding into Europe across the Mediterranean and overland by different routes. More than a quarter million refugees from the Middle East, mostly from Syria, have reached the Greek Islands on their way to Europe. Europe has no coherent response to the scale of this migration, in fact the EU is badly divided how to manage this humanitarian crisis.
Multiply that by 10-12 times and spare a thought for Pakistan being home to one of the world’s largest concentration of refugees, and that also for more than three decades. The first wave of Afghans started trickling during the early 80s with the Soviet invasion, the next wave escaped the civil war that started in real earnest after their exit. The single-mindedness of the Taliban regime’s hardline version of Islam sent more refugees fleeing, and finally the US-led Coalition invasion after Sept 11 forced hundreds of thousands to cross over the porous international border. Pakistan has been host to more than six million Afghan refugees at one time. Contrast that to alarm bells ringing throughout the EU with only 300000 on Europe’s doorsteps! Even today there are more than 3.5 million refugees in Pakistan, 1.7 million refugees are registered in camps and almost 1.6 million scattered through the towns and cities of Pakistan. Several million Afghans have become Pakistani citizens by bribing officials, they now own businesses and real-estate. A vast posh sector in our capital Islamabad houses mostly Afghans. We also have our own migrants in Europe and USA. Other than professionals who have worked hard to make a living, those made plenty of money looting the national till are mostly based in posh villas and luxury apartments in Dubai and London.
Refugees add to the general instability of the local community, triggering a social problem, the deepening of local resentment. Those scattered all over Pakistan still remain unregistered, among them are criminals, extremist and terrorist elements, working on an anti-Pakistan anti-establishment agenda, they pose existing security threat. They impact on renewable natural resources (cutting down of trees, cutting foliage to feed livestock, etc.) having had a drastic long-term effect, with land becoming unfit for even the most basic forms of agriculture.
The refugees must go back to their home country. The repatriation of Afghan refugees under the auspices of the UNHCR has been going on since early 2002 but for everyone repatriated another has replaced him (or her). Successive Pakistani government(s) have been unable to act to hasten their return. Lacking concrete measures (and the will) to repatriate the refugees, Afghanistan soon notwithstanding, the increase in Taliban attacks within Afghanistan shows that the conflict does not appear to be ending any time soon. The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) today provides a level of security within Afghanistan as well as economic opportunity, contributing to relative stability in the capital and lessening the number of migrants. The loss of Kunduz, a key northern provincial capital lost in 2001 by the Taliban, had a great demoralizing setback for the govt of President Ashraf Ghani. After days of bitter fighting, Afghan Forces have managed to retake Kunduz but not without massive air assistance from the US as well as stiffening up by US Special Forces on the ground. According to the United Nations (UN) as many as 6,000 civilians were reported to have fled the city because of escalating violence with reports of extrajudicial executions (including that of healthcare workers) and abductions.
With the planned exit of all foreign troops drawing closer, Afghanistan will become more vulnerable to Taliban insurgents. With the performance of the Afghan National Army (ANA) during the last few years as a true indicator, there is every reason to be pessimistic about the Afghan military being able to hold its own against a determined and resilient enemy after the exit of international forces. With more than 6000 Afghan soldiers killed between 2003 and 2014, and every month about 4000 desertions, there are signs they may disintegrate in the same manner they did after Soviet forces exited Afghanistan. The fighting will rapidly trigger large-scale chaos and panic, in a bid to escape and save their lives the people will make a beeline for the porous Pakistan-Afghan border, only a few will turn towards Iran. Iran has never allowed the bulk of refugees to leave the Border Zone of about 5 miles. Is Pakistan prepared to check and prevent the new refugees from entering? With existing refugee camps in Pakistan already a safe haven for terrorists and drug dealers, even if a few thousand refugees were to enter Pakistan in new waves, there is no telling how many terrorists or insurgents could be among them, all in all a nightmare scenario for Pakistan. One of the things to remember is that if there is increased Taliban activity in and around Kabul most of the refugees will be from that city. This has the largest concentration of anti-Pakistan elements and they are vocal about it. As it is most of those who badmouth us have a second home in Pakistan. Unfortunately for us they know we are stupid enough to welcome them in our country. That should be our acid test, we should never let such ingrates into Pakistan.
Pakistan must now plan ahead for the worst, it is better to be safe than sorry. A mechanism must be worked out to prepare for the next wave, to prevent new Afghan refugees from entering Pakistan, allowing only those cleared after diligent screening. Perhaps some of the other countries in the vicinity of Afghanistan can be persuaded by the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) to do their bit and allow refugees to come in. What about Kabul’s bosom friend India, Modi should take about 100000 or so refugees. Oh I forgot, the Muslim Afghans eat beef.
The international community has shown in Europe why Pakistan cannot tolerate more illegal migrants on its soil. The US and western must “do more” bringing back refugees living in Pakistan by creating conducive conditions for their sustainable reintegration in their homeland. Pakistan should move away from our liberal “open-door policy” and close our door for any further refugees from Afghanistan.
The only way to stop the intending EXODUS is to launch an Operation “Closed Door”.
